Cummins (CMI)
Backup generators + hydrogen fuel cells for DC.
- Ticker: CMI
- Sector: power equipment (genset)
- DC exposure tier: mid
Cummins (CMI) is a moderate-exposure data-center supply-chain name in the power equipment sector. Data Center Index tracks Cummins's capex history, project wins, and supplier exposure across the AI infrastructure buildout, refreshed daily from SEC filings and project announcements.
Cummins data center thesis
Cummins is the standard-issue backup-power supplier for North American data centers: multi-megawatt diesel and gas gensets that sit behind every Tier III/IV facility. Power Systems backlog has scaled from $0.66B in 2022 to $6.0B in Q3 2025 (+58% YoY), and management disclosed the data-center segment grew 31% in Q1 and now exceeds construction-equipment revenue for the first time. The 126% twelve-month move reflects the recognition that DC is now structurally bigger than trucking inside this story.
Bull case
- Power Systems backlog has gone from $0.66B in 2022 to $6.0B in Q3 2025, a 9x increase, with quarterly YoY prints of 87%, 100%, and 58% sustained across 2025; the data-center segment alone grew 31% in Q1 and now outearns construction equipment.
- Large genset lead times of 20-40 weeks are structurally tight; backup power is non-negotiable for hyperscaler permitting, and Cummins has the multi-megawatt service network IOUs and developers cannot replicate, giving it pricing power as DC slots get scarcer.
- Every new DC site needs N+1 backup capacity per megawatt of IT load; as gigawatt-scale campuses (Vantage Frontier, Stargate, Tesla Terafab) move from announce to construction, the standby-power TAM scales mechanically with capex.
Bear case
- Trucking demand is in cyclical drift; Engine and Distribution segments still dominate the company mix, and a Class 8 downturn would offset the DC narrative on the consolidated print.
- After 126% twelve months and trading at 91% of 52-week range, CMI is priced for a clean ramp; a single quarter of slowing Power Systems book-to-bill would compress a multiple no longer earning a pure-cyclical discount.
- Hydrogen and Accelera platform investments continue to consume cash without yet earning their cost of capital; execution risk on the energy-transition portfolio remains a real overhang on the consolidated story.
Data center exposure rationale
Power Systems backup gen-sets serve DCs and are a fast-growing piece, but Engine and Distribution segments (truck/industrial) still dominate the company mix.
Cummins revenue and capex
In fiscal 2025, Cummins reported revenue of $33.7B, capital spending of $1.2B and operating income of $4.0B.
| Fiscal year | Revenue | Capex | Operating income |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | $33.7B | $1.2B | $4.0B |
| 2024 | $34.1B | $1.2B | $3.8B |
| 2023 | $34.1B | $1.2B | $1.8B |
Tracked Cummins data center projects
- AWS Project Rainier (New Carlisle), 2.2 GW est., New Carlisle, IN · operational
- Azure Northern Virginia, 1 GW est., Northern Virginia, VA · operational
- Meta Prometheus, 1 GW, New Albany, OH · operational
- Amazon Mattameade Tech Campus, 770 MW, Woodford, VA · announced
- Google Council Bluffs (East), 237 MW est., Council Bluffs, IA · operational
- Microsoft Fairwater Wisconsin, Mount Pleasant, WI · operational