NVIDIA (NVDA)
GPU monopoly for AI training. Drives the entire DC capex cycle.
- Ticker: NVDA
- Sector: semiconductor (gpu)
NVIDIA (NVDA) is a tracked supply-chain name in the data-center buildout in the semiconductor sector. Data Center Index tracks NVIDIA's capex history, project wins, and supplier exposure across the AI infrastructure buildout, refreshed daily from SEC filings and project announcements.
NVIDIA data center thesis
NVIDIA sells the GPUs every hyperscaler, sovereign, and neocloud is queueing for: FY2026 revenue is tracking $216B against $130B last year, with operating income at $130B and gross margin holding 71%. The CUDA stack plus NVLink networking is the de facto AI training standard, which is why Stargate, MGX/Mistral, and a 5GW Abu Dhabi campus all spec NVIDIA silicon as a starting assumption.
Bull case
- Backlog momentum is intact: Q4 FY25 commitments hit $2.5B, up 56% YoY, and the project pipeline now spans 14+ countries from Helsinki to Tomakomai, suggesting demand is broadening past the original four hyperscalers.
- Every leading-edge AI chip ships through TSMC, but NVIDIA captures most of the wafer-to-system margin: 71% gross margin on a $216B run-rate is the supply-chain spread that funds the entire DC capex cycle.
- If hyperscaler capex resets higher again in 2026 (Meta/MSFT/AMZN/GOOGL all guided up), NVIDIA is mechanically the largest single-line beneficiary inside that capex envelope.
Bear case
- Custom-silicon competition is real, not theoretical: Google TPU v6, AWS Trainium 2/3, Meta MTIA, and Microsoft Maia all collapse NVIDIA take-rate inside the top-five buyers who account for the bulk of the order book.
- CUDA moat erodes if PyTorch/Triton-on-AMD or vLLM-on-TPU close the inference gap, exactly as MI300/MI400 and TPU pricing pressure ASPs at the margin where 70%+ gross margins live.
- China demand cycle remains a binary risk: export controls, H20-class downgrades, and DeepSeek-style efficiency gains all compress the addressable revenue line that the 99th-percentile valuation is currently pricing.
NVIDIA revenue and capex
In fiscal 2026, NVIDIA reported revenue of $215.9B, capital spending of $6.0B and operating income of $130.4B.
| Fiscal year | Revenue | Capex | Operating income |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $215.9B | $6.0B | $130.4B |
| 2025 | $130.5B | $3.2B | $81.5B |
| 2024 | $60.9B | $1.1B | $33.0B |
Tracked NVIDIA data center projects
- MGX/Mistral AI Campus (Paris Region), 1.4 GW, Fouju, France · under construction
- OpenAI Stargate UAE, 1 GW, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates · under construction
- OpenAI Stargate UAE, 1 GW, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates · under construction
- Crusoe Abilene Expansion, 900 MW, Abilene, TX · under construction
- Oracle AI Cloud Infrastructure (US), 800 MW est., Ashburn, United States · operational
- CoreWeave AI Data Centers (US), 500 MW est., United States · operational
- Naver & NVIDIA Morocco AI Data Center (Tamesna), 500 MW, Tamesna, Morocco · announced
- SoftBank Tomakomai AI Data Center (Japan), 300 MW, Tomakomai, Japan · under construction
- Cassava AI Data Center (Egypt), 200 MW, Cairo, Egypt · announced
- Cyberport AI Supercomputing Centre (AISC), Hong Kong, 50 MW est., Cyberport, Hong Kong · operational
Analysis mentioning NVIDIA
- Anthropic IPO Odds After a $16.8 Billion Quarter: November Holds, $2 Trillion Doesn't, 2026-10-15
- SpaceX's $40 Billion Loan for Nvidia Chips Turns Colossus Into a Bond Story, 2026-10-09
- Space Data Centers: SpaceX vs Google Suncatcher vs Starcloud, and Why SpaceX's Plan Looks Strongest, 2026-10-02
- Meta Muse Runs a Separate Computer for Every User, and 642,000 of Them Showed Up in 12 Days, 2026-09-23
- Why Data Centers Are So Big: A Gigawatt Campus Costs $38 Billion, and the Land Is Under 1% of It, 2026-09-17
Recent NVIDIA news
- Warm-water ready, DCD, 2026-10-15
- NTT deploys Nvidia GPU test cluster at Munich 2 data center, DCD, 2026-10-15
- Nvidia joins The Earthshot Prize as new founding member, DCD, 2026-10-15
- Nvidia opens up Vera Rubin rack and tray designs to OCP, DCD, 2026-10-12
- Nvidia gears up to smash CPU hegemony as Vera starts shipping, DCD, 2026-10-12