Nebius Group (NBIS)
AI neocloud (ex-Yandex). $17.4B Microsoft deal. 9 DC buildouts planned.
- Ticker: NBIS
- Sector: gpu cloud
- DC exposure tier: high
Nebius Group (NBIS) is a high-exposure name in the data-center supply chain in the gpu cloud sector. Data Center Index tracks Nebius Group's capex history, project wins, and supplier exposure across the AI infrastructure buildout, refreshed daily from SEC filings and project announcements.
Nebius Group data center thesis
Dutch ex-Yandex spinout running a pure-play AI cloud across nine global DC builds totaling 1.93 GW of pipeline. Closed roughly $46B in customer commitments in 30 days including the $17.4B Microsoft deal, taking backlog to $21.3B by year-end 2025. Capex scaled from $0.81B in 2024 to $4.1B in 2025; 2026 revenue guide is $16-20B against $0.53B trailing, the steepest scaling story in neocloud.
Bull case
- Backlog hit $21.3B and 2026 revenue guide of $16-20B implies a 30-37x scale year against $0.53B 2025 actual, anchored by the $17.4B Microsoft contract that locks multi-year capacity reservation.
- Operates 1.85 GW of owned pipeline across Finland (Mantsala renewable hydro), France, Israel, and US (800 MW Kansas City), geographically diversified offtake that captures sovereignty mandates competitors can't.
- Built-in cost moat from owning DC sites in low-cost-power Finland (~$30/MWh) at a moment when US power costs are blowing out; tier-1 customers care about $/training-hour, and Nordic siting wins on that metric.
Bear case
- Trades at $177 with a $43B+ market cap on $0.53B trailing revenue; even a $20B 2026 outcome leaves the multiple stretched, and any quarter that misses the $16B floor triggers a violent reset.
- Russian/Yandex provenance still creates regulatory tail risk in EU and US deals; any escalation in sanctions enforcement or tech-decoupling regime change could lock NBIS out of sensitive workloads.
- Building 1.85 GW simultaneously across four continents is operational alpha few companies have demonstrated; slippage on one major build (Kansas City, Lille, Lappeenranta) cascades into customer SLA penalties.
Data center exposure rationale
Nebius is a pure-play AI cloud operator, 100% DC infrastructure; entire business is renting AI compute out of newbuild GPU DCs.
Tracked Nebius Group data center projects
- Nebius Kansas City AI Campus (Independence), 1.2 GW, Independence, MO · under construction
- Lappeenranta AI Factory, 310 MW, Lappeenranta, Finland, Finland · under construction
- Nebius / DataOne Vineland AI Campus, 300 MW, Vineland, NJ · under construction
- Lille AI Factory, 240 MW, Béthune, France · under construction
- Mantsala AI Factory, 75 MW, Mäntsälä, Finland · operational
- Nebius & Mega Or Israel AI Hub, 58 MW, Beit Shemesh, Israel · under construction
Analysis mentioning Nebius Group
- SpaceX's $40 Billion Loan for Nvidia Chips Turns Colossus Into a Bond Story, 2026-10-09
- AI Slowdown Selloff: CoreWeave and Nebius Fell 9% the Morning Anthropic Was Reported Taking a Six-Year Lease, 2026-09-15
- Lambda's $35 Billion One-Tenant Deal Rewrites the Customer Concentration Math for CoreWeave, Nebius and IREN, 2026-09-01
- CoreWeave's Q2 Earnings: Revenue Up 112%, and a $640 Million Interest Bill Bigger Than the Net Loss, 2026-08-12
- The 10 Biggest AI Capex Spenders of 2026, 2026-05-16
Recent Nebius Group news
- Nebius signs LOI with Volt for data center capacity in Rotterdam, the Netherlands, DCD, 2026-10-12
- Nebius signs 50MW lease with AIB Data Centers, DCD, 2026-10-01
- Palantir selects Nebius as sovereign AI infrastructure provider, DCD, 2026-09-08
- Nebius secures $5.75bn in senior notes offering, DCD, 2026-08-25
- Nebius plans second US gigawatt-scale data center campus in Pennsylvania, DCD, 2026-05-14