CRWV — Sep 84/70 put spread
CoreWeave's Q2 carried a $640M interest bill larger than its net loss, against a $103.7B backlog whose only tracked offtaker is OpenAI across seven projects and 2,093 MW. The Journal's $3T off-balance-sheet tally is a direct challenge to exactly that financing structure, and Oracle's September 10 print is the first dated test of whether AI contract commitments hold their terms. IV rank is 6.3 with skew rank at 10, so puts are cheap against calls: the 84/70 costs 4.34 and breaks even at 79.66, a 5.4% move against the 13% the chain prices.
- Ticker: CRWV
- Direction: Bearish
- Risk profile: directional
- Confidence: medium
- Catalyst: Oracle Q1 FY2027 earnings, the neocloud contract read-through (2026-09-10)
- Cohort: 2026-08-30
- Expires: 2026-09-06
- Max loss: $4.34
- Max gain: $9.66
Structure
- long put 84 2026-09-18
- short put 70 2026-09-18
Signals
- Q2 interest expense: $640M, larger than the net loss, on revenue +112% (insight)
- Backlog concentration: $103.7B backlog, OpenAI the only tracked offtaker (7 projects, 2,093 MW) (DB)
- IV rank and skew: IV rank 6.3, skew rank 10 (calls bid over puts) (DB)
- WSJ off-balance-sheet AI commitments: $3T across nine firms vs $600B reported 12-month capex (web_search)
What invalidates this thesis
Oracle raising RPO on September 10, or CoreWeave naming a second large offtaker, refutes the concentration thesis and the 84 put decays through the 79.66 breakeven for the full 4.34 loss.