CRWV — Sep 87.5/70 put spread
CoreWeave fell 12.1% on August 18 alone as the bond market rotated out of debt-heavy AI infrastructure on a rate spike, and the funding math is the reason: Q2 interest expense of $640M was larger than the net loss. The company guides $30-35B of 2026 capex against $10.3B spent in FY2025, so every basis point on the curve reprices the equity. The FOMC releases its dot plot on September 16, two days before this expiry.
- Ticker: CRWV
- Direction: Bearish
- Risk profile: directional
- Confidence: medium
- Catalyst: FOMC decision + dot plot (2026-09-16)
- Cohort: 2026-08-23
- Expires: 2026-08-30
- Max loss: $5.65
- Max gain: $11.85
Structure
- long put 87.5 2026-09-18
- short put 70 2026-09-18
Signals
- Aug 18 single-day move: -12.1% to $93.17 on 36.9M shares (web_search)
- Q2 interest expense: $640M, larger than the net loss (insight)
- 2026 capex guide: $30-35B vs $10.3B FY2025 actual (DB)
- 10Y Treasury: 4.74% on Aug 21, up on the week (web_search)
What invalidates this thesis
Nvidia beats and guides Q3 above consensus on August 26 with constructive neocloud commentary, the rate-driven rotation unwinds, and CoreWeave reclaims 87.85 before the 81.85 breakeven is reached.