NVDA — Sep 225/250 call spread
NVIDIA carries $95.2B of supply-related commitments into the Aug 26 print, against a Street that models roughly $91.8B of July-quarter revenue and an October guide near $103B. The September chain prices a 9.3% move, the cheapest implied in our tracked supply-chain universe this week, with implied vol sitting in the 22nd percentile of its own year. The 225/250 spread costs $8.00 for $25 of width.
- Ticker: NVDA
- Direction: Bullish
- Risk profile: directional
- Confidence: high
- Catalyst: Q2 FY2027 earnings (AMC) (2026-08-26)
- Cohort: 2026-08-16
- Expires: 2026-08-23
- Max loss: $8.00
- Max gain: $17.00
Structure
- long call 225 2026-09-18
- short call 250 2026-09-18
Signals
- Supply commitments: $95.2B (Q4 FY26 CFO commentary) (earnings)
- Street revenue est.: ~$91.8B, Q3 guide ~$103.1B (web_search)
- Sep implied move: 9.3% (IV rank 22nd pct) (DB)
- 2026 hyperscaler capex: $700-725B, +77% YoY (web_search)
What invalidates this thesis
Gross margin below the guided 75%, or an October guide under $100B, breaks it. The stock sits 84% of the way up its 52-week range, so an in-line print gets sold.