NVDA — Sep 205/230 call spread
NVIDIA reports Q2 FY2027 on Aug 26 with 95.2B of supply-related commitments on the books and Blackwell ramping into a hyperscaler capex pool that all four majors guided higher for 2026, toward roughly 750B combined. The Sep chain prices a 12% move; a long 205/230 call spread costs 9.2 to make 15.8, breakeven 214.2, expressing the data-center segment guide without paying a naked long call's full IV crush.
- Ticker: NVDA
- Direction: Bullish
- Risk profile: earnings
- Confidence: high
- Catalyst: Q2 FY2027 earnings (2026-08-26)
- Cohort: 2026-08-04
- Expires: 2026-09-18
- Max loss: $9.20
- Max gain: $15.80
Structure
- long call 205 2026-09-18
- short call 230 2026-09-18
Signals
- Supply commitments: 95.2B (Q4 FY26 CFO commentary) (earnings)
- Hyperscaler 2026 capex: ~750B combined, guided up (web_search)
- Implied move (Sep): ~12% (DB)
- Segment catalyst: Blackwell DC guide (DB)
What invalidates this thesis
A gross-margin wobble on Blackwell yield or a China export-control headline resets the DC guide and pushes NVDA back below the 214.2 breakeven; at 12% implied, a directionally right but sub-4.5% move still loses on the spread.