CRWV — Aug 81/67 put credit spread
CoreWeave's committed backlog reached 98.8B in Q1 2026, up 572% year over year, against full-year revenue guidance of 30B to 35B, and the stock has already bounced 21% into the Aug 11 print. The chain prices a 22% move; a short 81/67 put spread collects 5.37 of credit and holds max profit as long as CRWV stays above 75.63, roughly 12% below spot.
- Ticker: CRWV
- Direction: Bullish
- Risk profile: earnings
- Confidence: medium
- Catalyst: Q2 2026 earnings (2026-08-11)
- Cohort: 2026-08-04
- Expires: 2026-08-21
- Max loss: $8.63
- Max gain: $5.37
Structure
- short put 81 2026-08-21
- long put 67 2026-08-21
Signals
- Committed backlog: 98.8B (+572% YoY) (DB)
- 2026 revenue guide: 30B-35B (DB)
- Implied move: ~22% by Aug expiry (DB)
- 1-week run-up: +21% into the print (DB)
What invalidates this thesis
A guide-down on 2027 backlog conversion or a single-customer concentration disclosure could drop CRWV more than 12% on the print and breach the 75.63 short-put breakeven; post-IPO names gap hard.