VST — Aug 155/172.5 call spread
Vistra reports Aug 7 near a 52-week low (155 against a 219 high) having reaffirmed 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance of 6.8B to 7.6B, while ERCOT load is set to grow 5% to 6% a year through 2030 on data center demand. The company signed 20-year nuclear PPAs totaling roughly 2,600 MW with Amazon and Meta. The chain prices an 11% move into the print, and a long 155/172.5 call spread costs 5.75 to make 11.75 if a beaten-down IPP re-rates on the demand read.
- Ticker: VST
- Direction: Bullish
- Risk profile: earnings
- Confidence: medium
- Catalyst: Q2 2026 earnings (2026-08-07)
- Cohort: 2026-08-04
- Expires: 2026-08-21
- Max loss: $5.75
- Max gain: $11.75
Structure
- long call 155 2026-08-21
- short call 172.5 2026-08-21
Signals
- 2026 EBITDA guide: 6.8B-7.6B reaffirmed (web_search)
- ERCOT load growth: 5-6%/yr through 2030 (web_search)
- Nuclear PPAs signed: ~2,600 MW, 20-yr (AWS+Meta) (web_search)
- Price vs 52w high: 155 vs 219 (-29%) (DB)
What invalidates this thesis
A soft power-price realization or a mild-weather demand miss keeps VST pinned near the lows and the 160.75 breakeven out of reach; IPP earnings are weather- and hedge-sensitive quarter to quarter.