Vistra Corp (VST)
Largest competitive power generator in TX. Major DC power supplier.
- Ticker: VST
- Sector: energy (ipp)
- DC exposure tier: mid
Vistra Corp (VST) is a moderate-exposure data-center supply-chain name in the energy sector. Data Center Index tracks Vistra Corp's capex history, project wins, and supplier exposure across the AI infrastructure buildout, refreshed daily from SEC filings and project announcements.
Vistra Corp data center thesis
Vistra is the largest competitive power generator in Texas with the Comanche Peak nuclear plant (2.4 GW) and a heavy ERCOT gas fleet. Q1 2026 backlog jumped to $7.47B (+168% YoY) on DC offtake momentum, and announced deals include the Comanche Peak DC campus (1.2 GW) plus Meta's Perry, OH nuclear uprate (2.1 GW). 2025 capex hit $2.75B funding the buildout.
Bull case
- Q1 2026 backlog at $7.47B is up 168% YoY, the cleanest signal in the IPP space that DC PPAs are converting to bookings, not just pipeline talk.
- Comanche Peak nuclear + the Meta uprate at Perry give VST behind-the-meter optionality at ~3.3 GW of nuclear capacity, where 24/7 carbon-free megawatts trade at premium spreads vs. PJM/ERCOT clearing prices.
- ERCOT gas fleet captures summer scarcity pricing that DC load growth makes structurally tighter; VST is the levered way to play Texas peak power without taking commodity-curve risk.
Bear case
- Stock at $148 is 33% off its 52-week high and sits at just 17% of the 52-week range; the market is already de-rating IPP multiples on PJM capacity-auction normalization and FERC behind-the-meter reviews.
- Federal policy reversal on co-located DC/nuclear structures (FERC has openly debated the Talen-AWS precedent) would compress the Comanche Peak campus economics before construction.
- PJM and ERCOT market design is a constant political risk; any cap on scarcity pricing or capacity-clearing reform would directly compress merchant gas spreads that drive VST's gross margin.
Data center exposure rationale
Comanche Peak nuclear and ERCOT retail mix; DC offtake conversations (incl. Microsoft talks) are emerging but consolidated mix is still retail + diversified gen.
Vistra Corp revenue and capex
In fiscal 2025, Vistra Corp reported revenue of $17.6B, capital spending of $2.8B and operating income of $1.9B.
| Fiscal year | Revenue | Capex | Operating income |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | $17.6B | $2.8B | $1.9B |
| 2024 | $14.8B | $2.1B | $4.1B |
| 2023 | $13.8B | $1.7B | $2.7B |
Tracked Vistra Corp data center projects
- Meta–Vistra Nuclear Uprate Agreement (OH/PA), 2.1 GW est., Perry, OH · announced
- Vistra's Comanche Peak Nuclear Data Center Campus, Glen Rose, TX · announced