CRWV — Aug 105/115 call credit spread
CoreWeave reports August 18 into the worst neocloud tape of the year: the Meta compute-resale report knocked the group down double digits on the theory that AI compute supply is catching up to demand. The company is guiding $30-35B of FY26 capex against $10.3B spent in FY25, a funding schedule that assumes the glut narrative is wrong. The chain prices a 25.4% move by August 21; the Aug 105/115 call credit spread collects 2.06 and pays anywhere below an 18% rally.
- Ticker: CRWV
- Direction: Bearish
- Risk profile: earnings
- Confidence: medium
- Catalyst: Q2 2026 earnings (2026-08-18)
- Cohort: 2026-07-12
- Expires: 2026-07-19
- Max loss: $7.94
- Max gain: $2.06
Structure
- short call 105 2026-08-21
- long call 115 2026-08-21
Signals
- Q2 print confirmed: Aug 18 AMC (Investing.com) (web_search)
- FY26 capex guide: $30-35B vs $10.3B FY25 (DB)
- Meta compute resale report: CRWV, NBIS down double digits (Matterfact) (web_search)
- Supply-chain index WoW: -4.6% (DB)
What invalidates this thesis
A blowout print with a new anchor customer, or Meta walking back the resale report, squeezes a heavily shorted name straight through the 107.06 breakeven.