ANET — Aug 210/230 call credit spread
Arista reports August 4 with hyperscaler concentration and the 800G ramp as the watch items, days after a report that Meta may resell surplus AI compute sent the semiconductor complex down 6%. A customer with excess capacity is a customer that defers switch orders. The chain prices a 19.2% move by August 21; the Aug 210/230 call credit spread collects 4.55 on a 20-point width and pays anywhere below a 12% rally.
- Ticker: ANET
- Direction: Bearish
- Risk profile: earnings
- Confidence: medium
- Catalyst: Q2 2026 earnings (2026-08-04)
- Cohort: 2026-07-12
- Expires: 2026-07-19
- Max loss: $15.45
- Max gain: $4.55
Structure
- short call 210 2026-08-21
- long call 230 2026-08-21
Signals
- Earnings catalyst: Aug 4 AMC; watch: hyperscaler concentration, 800G ramp (hot) (DB)
- Meta compute resale report: SMH -6%, neoclouds down double digits (Axios) (web_search)
- AI leaders index WoW: -4.17% (DB)
What invalidates this thesis
A beat-and-raise with 800G orders accelerating runs the stock through the 214.55 breakeven, and Meta reaffirming its network buildout would gut the read-through.