CRWV — Aug 110/140 call credit spread
CoreWeave carries a $98.8B RPO into a Q2 print expected in mid-August, but Microsoft was 72% of Q1 revenue and HSBC opened coverage at Reduce with a $32 target on that concentration. Insiders have logged 1,812 open-market sales and zero buys over six months while a 27.5% lock-up tranche freed in May keeps Rule 144 supply on the tape. The chain prices a 31% move by August expiry, so the 110/140 call credit spread sells that elevated premium with a bearish tilt and a 118.93 breakeven.
- Ticker: CRWV
- Direction: Bearish
- Risk profile: earnings
- Confidence: medium
- Catalyst: Q2 2026 earnings (est. mid-Aug) + post-lockup supply (2026-08-12)
- Cohort: 2026-06-16
- Expires: 2026-08-21
- Max loss: $21.07
- Max gain: $8.93
Structure
- short call 110 2026-08-21
- long call 140 2026-08-21
Signals
- Customer concentration: MSFT = 72% of Q1 revenue (web_search)
- Sell-side: HSBC initiated Reduce, $32 PT (web_search)
- Insider selling: 1,812 open-market sales, 0 buys (6mo) (web_search)
- Lock-up supply: 27.5% tranche (~61M sh) freed May 18; Rule 144 resales ongoing (web_search)
What invalidates this thesis
A blowout Q2 print that diversifies revenue beyond Microsoft, plus an IV crush, pushes CRWV through the 110 short strike; the spread loses above the 118.93 breakeven.