VST — Aug 155/180 call debit spread
Vistra reports Q2 on August 6 with backlog up 168% to $7.5B and 3,800 MW of contracted data-center supply, including a 2.1GW nuclear agreement with Meta. The August 155/180 call spread costs 34% of its width with a 163.50 breakeven, expressing the ERCOT-pipeline and Perry-restart catalysts without paying for the full implied move.
- Ticker: VST
- Direction: Bullish
- Risk profile: earnings
- Confidence: medium
- Catalyst: Q2 2026 earnings (2026-08-06)
- Cohort: 2026-06-16
- Expires: 2026-08-21
- Max loss: $8.50
- Max gain: $16.50
Structure
- long call 155 2026-08-21
- short call 180 2026-08-21
Signals
- Q1'26 backlog: $7.5B, +168% YoY (DB)
- DC PPAs: Meta 2.1GW + AWS; 3,800 MW contracted (web_search)
- Catalyst: Perry nuclear restart; ERCOT pipeline (web_search)
- Aug implied move: 18% by Aug 21 expiry (DB)
What invalidates this thesis
Mild-summer ERCOT power prices or a PPA-cadence disappointment caps the move below the 163.50 breakeven, and the debit decays into the Aug 21 expiry.