NVDA — Jun 214/200 put credit spread

Nvidia prints Q1 FY27 Wednesday May 20 AMC against a $78B revenue guide (consensus $72.6B coming in) with Blackwell at ~70% of data-center compute and Jensen citing $1T in Blackwell+Rubin purchase orders through 2027 at the GTC 2026 analyst Q&A. The chain prices an 11.5% June implied move, IV is pinned into the print, and the 30Δ put at 214 collects $4.05 of credit against a $14 wing — the structure harvests the post-print IV crush in the bullish direction without needing the upside to break a specific strike.

Structure

  • short put 214 2026-06-18
  • long put 200 2026-06-18

Signals

  • Q1 FY27 revenue guide: B (consensus .6B) (web_search)
  • Blackwell mix of DC compute: ~70% (web_search)
  • Blackwell+Rubin demand through 2027: T (per Jensen, GTC 2026) (web_search)
  • Implied move (Jun): 11.5% (DB)

What invalidates this thesis

If the Q2 FY27 guide comes in below $85B or if gross margin telegraphs sub-73% on Blackwell yield costs, the stock can trade through 210 intraday on the after-hours print and the short put leg blows past breakeven before the IV-crush math has a chance to compound.