ANET: Nov 160/145 / 195/210 iron condor
Arista reports Nov 3 after an 18.3% drop on the week, and its IV now sits at the 90th percentile of its year. The chain prices a 14.4% move by Nov 20; the condor collects $6.35 on $15 wings and keeps it anywhere between 153.65 and 201.35. Meta's two campuses in our directory total 6,000 MW, which is the 800G ramp the print has to defend.
- Ticker: ANET
- Direction: Neutral
- Risk profile: volatility
- Confidence: medium
- Catalyst: Q3 2026 earnings (hyperscaler concentration, 800G ramp) (2026-11-03)
- Cohort: 2026-10-18
- Expires: 2026-10-25
- Max loss: $8.65
- Max gain: $6.35
Structure
- long put 145 2026-11-20
- short put 160 2026-11-20
- short call 195 2026-11-20
- long call 210 2026-11-20
Signals
- IV percentile (52w): 90.5 (DB)
- Week change: -18.3% (DB)
- Chain implied move to Nov 20: 14.4% (DB)
- Meta linked campuses: 2 projects, 6,000 MW (DB)
What invalidates this thesis
A second leg of the AI debt selloff or a guide-down from Meta on Oct 28 pushes ANET through 153.65 before the print, and the $8.65 max loss is larger than the credit.