CRWV: Nov 70/80 call credit spread
CoreWeave's 9.625% notes due 2032 touched a 15% yield on Oct 13 and the stock fell 25% on the week to .39, 0.6% off its 52-week low. Its interest bill already exceeds adjusted operating income, so the Oct 28 FOMC decision lands directly on the equity after a hot inflation print raised December hike odds. IV sits at the 86th percentile of its year, which makes selling the 70 call against the 80 the cleaner bear structure than paying for puts.
- Ticker: CRWV
- Direction: Bearish
- Risk profile: directional
- Confidence: medium
- Catalyst: FOMC decision (rate-hike risk on refinancing) (2026-10-28)
- Cohort: 2026-10-18
- Expires: 2026-10-25
- Max loss: $7.86
- Max gain: $2.14
Structure
- short call 70 2026-11-20
- long call 80 2026-11-20
Signals
- 2032 notes yield: 15% intraday Oct 13 (web_search (247 Wall St, Oct 14))
- Week change: -25.2%, 0.6% of 52w range (DB)
- IV percentile (52w): 85.7 (DB)
- Backlog Q2 2026: $103.7B (DB)
What invalidates this thesis
The $103.7B backlog is management's answer to the debt question; a financing win or a short squeeze off the low above 72.14 takes the $7.86 max loss.