ANET: Nov 200/170 put spread
Arista trades at 94% of its 52-week range into a Nov 3 print, a week after Meta (Oct 21) and Microsoft (Oct 28) report capex, and those two hyperscalers sit behind most of its linked AI campuses. With chips selling off on AI-financing worries, the 200/170 put spread costs about $8.89 on a $30 width against a 14% implied move.
- Ticker: ANET
- Direction: Bearish
- Risk profile: directional
- Confidence: medium
- Catalyst: Q3 2026 earnings (hyperscaler concentration, 800G ramp) (2026-11-03)
- Cohort: 2026-10-13
- Expires: 2026-10-20
- Max loss: $8.89
- Max gain: $21.11
Structure
- long put 200 2026-11-20
- short put 170 2026-11-20
Signals
- 52w range position: 93.7% (DB)
- Linked hyperscaler builds: Meta 6,000 MW across 2 campuses (DB)
- Chip selloff Oct 13: AI-trade sustainability concerns (web_search (AP via 10tv))
- IV percentile (52w): 58.5 (DB)
What invalidates this thesis
A capex raise from Meta on Oct 21 followed by an 800G beat would hold Arista above $191.11 and the spread loses its $8.89 debit.