NBIS: Long Nov 240 straddle
Nebius reports Nov 10, inside the November expiry, and its IV sits at the 7th percentile of the past year after a 115% run. The 240 straddle costs $62.20, pricing a 26.2% move, and the stock has covered $73 to $300 in twelve months; the trade is that GPU-cloud prints move more than a cheap chain allows.
- Ticker: NBIS
- Direction: Neutral
- Risk profile: earnings
- Confidence: medium
- Catalyst: Q3 2026 earnings (2026-11-10)
- Cohort: 2026-09-27
- Expires: 2026-10-04
- Max loss: $62.20
Structure
- long call 240 2026-11-20
- long put 240 2026-11-20
Signals
- IV percentile (52w): 7th (DB)
- 52-week range: $73.52 to $299.86 (DB)
- Tracked hyperscaler campus: Microsoft 145 MW (DB)
- Short interest: 19.8% of float (web_search)
What invalidates this thesis
A print that lands inside $178 to $302 loses to IV crush on both legs; close before the print if IV has run into it.