CRWV: Nov 82.5/60 put spread
CoreWeave backlog grew only $4.9B last quarter to $103.7B, after adding $84B in the year to Q1, and Microsoft was 62% of 2024 revenue. The stock fell 8.6% last week into a Nov 9 print where the chain prices a 27% move; the Nov 82.5/60 put spread costs about $8.93 for $22.50 of width and breaks even near 73.57.
- Ticker: CRWV
- Direction: Bearish
- Risk profile: directional
- Confidence: medium
- Catalyst: Q3 2026 earnings (2026-11-09)
- Cohort: 2026-09-21
- Expires: 2026-09-28
Structure
- long put 82.5 2026-11-20
- short put 60 2026-11-20
Signals
- Backlog growth: +$4.9B QoQ to $103.7B (Q1 YoY +572%, Q2 +245%) (DB)
- Customer concentration: Microsoft 62% of 2024 revenue (earnings)
- Price action: -8.6% WoW, 6.6% of 52-week range (DB)
- Nov straddle implied move: 26.8% (DB)
What invalidates this thesis
A new multi-billion contract with a non-Microsoft customer before Nov 9 would reset the backlog story, and a stock already 78% off its high has little room left for a crowded short.