Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM)
Manufactures NVIDIA/AMD/Apple chips. Arizona + Japan fabs via CHIPS Act.
- Ticker: TSM
- Sector: chip fab (foundry)
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) is a tracked supply-chain name in the data-center buildout in the chip fab sector. Data Center Index tracks Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing's capex history, project wins, and supplier exposure across the AI infrastructure buildout, refreshed daily from SEC filings and project announcements.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing data center thesis
Every leading-edge AI chip ships through TSMC: Blackwell, MI300/400, Trainium, MTIA, TPU v6, Apple silicon. FY24 revenue hit $89.7B with $40.3B operating income and 55% gross margin, and the FY25 capex guide of $52-56B is the single largest commitment to leading-edge wafer capacity in the industry. Arizona Fab 21, Dresden ESMC, and JASM Kumamoto are operational or breaking ground.
Bull case
- Wafer pricing power is real and asymmetric: when Apple, NVIDIA, AMD, and the entire ASIC pipeline are competing for the same N3/N2 slots, TSMC sets the price and books $40B+ in operating income on 55% gross margin.
- Advanced packaging (CoWoS) is the structural bottleneck for HBM-bound AI accelerators; TSMC is the only company that can scale CoWoS capacity fast enough to meet 2026-27 hyperscaler demand, which compounds the wafer pricing power.
- Geographic diversification removes the single-fab-island narrative: AZ + Dresden + Kumamoto give US/EU/Japan customers the political optionality that justifies a global multiple rather than a Taiwan-only discount.
Bear case
- NVIDIA customer concentration: a single customer now accounts for a meaningful slice of leading-edge revenue; any inventory correction or hyperscaler pull-back compresses both volume and the CoWoS premium simultaneously.
- Geopolitical risk is the only risk that matters at this scale: a Taiwan Strait disruption, US export rules on N2 to China, or a Trump-era tariff renegotiation all bypass the operating model entirely.
- Capex intensity is rising into a possible 2027 cycle digestion; $52-56B of FY25 capex assumes leading-edge demand keeps compounding, and any AI ASIC volume push-out hits FCF directly.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing revenue and capex
In fiscal 2025, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing reported revenue of $121.4B and capital spending of $40.6B.
| Fiscal year | Revenue | Capex | Operating income |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | $121.4B | $40.6B | n/a |
| 2024 | $88.3B | $29.2B | $40.3B |
| 2023 | $70.6B | $31.0B | $30.1B |
Tracked Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing data center projects
- Fab 21 Phase 1 (N4), Phoenix, AZ · operational
- JASM Fab 1 (Kumamoto), Kumamoto, Japan, Japan · operational
- ESMC Dresden, Dresden, Germany, Germany · under construction