Oracle (ORCL)

OCI growth + Stargate JV partner. Aggressive DC expansion globally.

Oracle (ORCL) is a tracked supply-chain name in the data-center buildout in the hyperscaler sector. Data Center Index tracks Oracle's capex history, project wins, and supplier exposure across the AI infrastructure buildout, refreshed daily from SEC filings and project announcements.

Oracle data center thesis

Oracle backlog exploded from $97.3B (Q4-24) to $552.6B (Q1-26), a 324% YoY print driven almost entirely by OpenAI Stargate contracts. OCI capex tripled from $6.87B (FY24) to $21.21B (FY25), with FY26 guided to $50B against $67B revenue. Nine OpenAI-tenanted Stargate sites total 12.6GW and $54B+ committed cost. ORCL has effectively transformed from a slow-growth database vendor into a leveraged neocloud bet in 18 months.

Bull case

  • Backlog of $552.6B against $57.4B FY25 revenue is roughly 10 years of revenue under contract; this is the largest cloud RPO ratio in the industry and gives Oracle visibility through 2032+ on Stargate alone.
  • Bloom Energy 2.8GW fuel-cell order (per the published insight) bypasses utility lead times by 55+ days; Oracle is now the one hyperscaler buying speed-to-power at scale and that pull-through goes directly to BE, EME, and Mortenson.
  • OpenAI Stargate sites in TX (Abilene 1.18GW, Shackelford 1.96GW), NM (2.21GW), MI (1.38GW), and WI (1.3GW) lock Oracle into the OpenAI training-cluster supply chain regardless of Microsoft commercial outcome, a hedge MSFT does not have.

Bear case

  • Stock at $195.95 is -43% off the September $344 high, and the volatility (-30% in February alone) reflects the markets discomfort pricing single-customer concentration risk; one OpenAI restructuring headline halves the multiple again.
  • $50B FY26 capex against $17.7B FY25 operating income is the most extreme capex-to-OI ratio in the universe; Oracle is funding the buildout with debt and Larry Ellison personal guarantees, not free cash flow.
  • OpenAI is roughly 65%+ of the Q1-26 backlog; if OpenAI signs a competing capacity deal with Google, AWS, or Crusoe at the next funding round, Oracle is left with a stranded 12.6GW take-or-pay liability.

Thesis last reviewed 2026-05-09.

Oracle revenue and capex

In fiscal 2026, Oracle reported revenue of $67.4B, capital spending of $55.7B and operating income of $20.6B.

Fiscal yearRevenueCapexOperating income
2026$67.4B$55.7B$20.6B
2025$57.4B$21.2B$17.7B
2024$53.0B$6.9B$15.4B

From annual reports filed with the SEC; the most recent was filed 2026-06-22.

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