OKLO — Long Nov 35 puts
Oklo set up an at-the-market program on Sep 11 to sell up to $1B of stock through ten sales agents, and the shares fell 12.2% on the week to the bottom of their 52-week range. The company booked no revenue in 2024 or 2025 and a $0.14B operating loss last year, so the Nov 10 Q3 print is a cash-burn and dilution update. IV sits in the 9th percentile of its range and 1-year realized vol of 100% runs above 82% implied, so the November 35 put at $4.00 keeps the full downside instead of capping it with a spread.
- Ticker: OKLO
- Direction: Bearish
- Risk profile: directional
- Confidence: medium
- Catalyst: Q3 2026 earnings (2026-11-10)
- Cohort: 2026-09-13
- Expires: 2026-09-20
- Max loss: $4.00
- Max gain: $31.00
Structure
- long put 35 2026-11-20
Signals
- At-the-market equity program: Up to $1B, filed Sep 11 (Yahoo Finance) (web_search)
- 2025 operating loss / revenue: -$0.14B / none (DB)
- Week return / 52w position: -12.2% / 0% (DB)
- IV percentile (52w): 9 (DB)
What invalidates this thesis
The stock is already down 62% in a year and sits at its 52-week low, so a new hyperscaler power agreement or a licensing step could squeeze it well above $35 before the print.