BE — Long Nov 280 straddle

Bloom Energy is up 311% in a year and 9% on the week into an Oct 27 Q3 print, on $2.0B of 2025 revenue and $0.07B of operating income. The November 280 straddle costs $85.07, a 31% move, while 60-day realized vol runs at 120% against 91% implied and IV sits in the 4th percentile of its 52-week range. The trade is that a stock priced this far ahead of its income statement keeps moving more than the chain charges, in either direction.

Structure

  • long call 280 2026-11-20
  • long put 280 2026-11-20

Signals

  • 1-year return: +311% (DB)
  • 60d realized vol vs Nov IV: 120% vs 91% (DB)
  • 2025 revenue / operating income: $2.0B / $0.07B (DB)
  • Oct 280 call open interest: 8,716 contracts (DB)

What invalidates this thesis

Realized vol has already cooled to 77% over 20 sessions; if that continues and the stock settles between $194.93 and $365.07 by Nov 20, both legs decay and the straddle loses.