COHR — Nov 310/410 call spread
Coherent reports fiscal Q1 on Nov 4 after fiscal 2026 revenue of $7.12B, up 23% from $5.81B, with capex up from $0.44B to $1.1B as NVIDIA's $2B March investment funds doubled indium-phosphide wafer capacity for 1.6T transceivers. The stock rose 8.3% on the week, yet November IV of 80% still sits below 60-day realized vol of 102%, so the 310/410 call spread costs $26.03 on a $100 width through the print.
- Ticker: COHR
- Direction: Bullish
- Risk profile: directional
- Confidence: medium
- Catalyst: Fiscal Q1 2027 earnings (AMC) (2026-11-04)
- Cohort: 2026-09-13
- Expires: 2026-09-20
- Max loss: $26.03
- Max gain: $73.97
Structure
- long call 310 2026-11-20
- short call 410 2026-11-20
Signals
- FY2026 revenue: $7.12B (+23% YoY) (DB)
- Capex FY25 to FY26: $0.44B to $1.1B (DB)
- NVIDIA strategic investment: $2B (Mar 2026) (DB)
- Nov IV vs 60d realized: 80% vs 102% (DB)
What invalidates this thesis
A fiscal Q1 guide where 1.6T transceiver pricing falls faster than unit volume grows sends the stock back through $310 and the spread expires worthless.