DLR — Sep 185/170 put spread
Kalshi puts September rate-hike odds at 48% after Warsh used Jackson Hole to say the summer inflation prints do not show underlying trends improving. Digital Realty carries the most rate-sensitive cash flows in the index, and its September chain already holds 3,692 open puts at the 185 strike against 148 calls. IV rank is 43.8, mid-range, which is where the long put vertical beats a single-leg put: the 185/170 costs 3.80 and breaks even at 181.20, a 2.3% move against the 6.4% the chain prices.
- Ticker: DLR
- Direction: Bearish
- Risk profile: directional
- Confidence: medium
- Catalyst: FOMC decision and dot plot, 2pm ET (2026-09-16)
- Cohort: 2026-08-30
- Expires: 2026-09-06
- Max loss: $3.80
- Max gain: $11.20
Structure
- long put 185 2026-09-18
- short put 170 2026-09-18
Signals
- September FOMC hike odds: 48% on Kalshi after Jackson Hole (CNBC, Aug 28) (web_search)
- 185-strike open interest: 3,692 puts vs 148 calls (DB)
- IV rank (52w percentile): 43.8, expected move 6.4% (DB)
- Week return: -2.70% WoW (DB)
What invalidates this thesis
A soft August CPI or payrolls print ahead of September 16 flips the Fed back to hold, REIT cap rates compress, and Digital Realty anywhere above 181.20 at expiry loses the 3.80 debit.