AVGO — Sep 320/340 / 390/420 iron condor
Broadcom reports FQ3 on September 2, and the September 18 chain prices an 11.3% move at 54.6% ATM IV against a median post-earnings move of 6.3% over the past eight quarters. That gap is the trade. Post-print ATM IV contracts roughly 44% on average, and the short strikes at 390 and 340 sit outside the historical median in both directions. This is the deepest chain in the cohort, with 10,771 contracts on the 420 call wing and 14,542 on the 320 put.
- Ticker: AVGO
- Direction: Neutral
- Risk profile: earnings
- Confidence: medium
- Catalyst: Broadcom FQ3 2026 earnings (2026-09-02)
- Cohort: 2026-08-23
- Expires: 2026-08-30
- Max loss: $18.14
- Max gain: $11.86
Structure
- long put 320 2026-09-18
- short put 340 2026-09-18
- short call 390 2026-09-18
- long call 420 2026-09-18
Signals
- Median post-earnings move: 6.3% over past 8 quarters (web_search)
- Sep 18 implied move: 11.3% at 54.6% ATM IV (DB)
- Average post-print IV contraction: ~44%, contracts in some amount 98% of the time (web_search)
- Wing open interest: 420C 10,771 / 320P 14,542 (DB)
What invalidates this thesis
An FQ4 AI revenue guide far enough above consensus gaps the stock through 401.86, or a custom-ASIC order cut from a named hyperscaler takes it under 328.14. Either tail breaches a short strike before the wings cap the loss at 18.14.