DLR — Sep 190/175 put spread
The 10-year closed at 4.74% on August 21 after the most tumultuous Treasury week since spring, and Digital Realty is the most rate-sensitive name in the tracked universe with 300-plus facilities financed against a REIT balance sheet. The September 16 FOMC lands two days before this expiry and carries the dot plot. The chain prices only a 5.5% move at 29.5% ATM IV, the cheapest long premium in this cohort.
- Ticker: DLR
- Direction: Bearish
- Risk profile: directional
- Confidence: medium
- Catalyst: FOMC decision + Summary of Economic Projections (2026-09-16)
- Cohort: 2026-08-23
- Expires: 2026-08-30
- Max loss: $4.20
- Max gain: $10.80
Structure
- long put 190 2026-09-18
- short put 175 2026-09-18
Signals
- 10Y Treasury: 4.74% Aug 21, up from 4.69% Aug 20 (web_search)
- Sep 18 implied move: 5.5% at 29.5% ATM IV (DB)
- FOMC dot plot: Sep 16, two days before expiry (web_search)
- Chain liquidity: ATM put OI 194, 175-strike wing 423 (DB)
What invalidates this thesis
A dovish dot plot on September 16 with the 10-year back under 4.5% puts the REIT bid straight back and the 185.80 breakeven never prints.