GEV — Sep 960/1080 call spread
GE Vernova booked more than $5B of data center orders in the first half of 2026, more than double what it booked in all of 2025, and none of that order book changed last week while the DC Pulse supply-chain basket fell 7.5%. Nvidia's Q2 print on August 26 sets the read-through for whether the power complex keeps its 2027 order visibility, and the Sep 18 chain prices only a 10.4% move against a name whose backlog is contracted years out.
- Ticker: GEV
- Direction: Bullish
- Risk profile: directional
- Confidence: medium
- Catalyst: NVDA Q2 FY27 earnings (sector read-through) (2026-08-26)
- Cohort: 2026-08-23
- Expires: 2026-08-30
- Max loss: $38.30
- Max gain: $81.70
Structure
- long call 960 2026-09-18
- short call 1080 2026-09-18
Signals
- H1 2026 DC orders: >$5B, more than 2x full-year 2025 (web_search)
- Power transformer lead time: 128 weeks avg (80-156 range) (DB)
- Supply-chain basket WoW: -7.46% to 241.18 (Aug 21) (DB)
- Sep 18 implied move: 10.4% at 51% ATM IV (DB)
What invalidates this thesis
Nvidia guides Q3 below consensus or softens capex language on the call, the power complex re-rates with it, and the 998.30 breakeven is out of reach with 26 days of theta left.