IREN — Sep 44/31 put spread
IREN's backlog stepped from $0.2B to $9.7B on a single Microsoft contract, and Microsoft is the only hyperscaler counterparty our project table carries for the name. The September chain prices a 24.3% move into the Aug 27 print while the stock sits at 45% of its 52-week range and the supply-chain basket makes highs, so the tape is discounting execution rather than rewarding the contract. The 44/31 put spread costs $4.49 for $13 of width and breaks even at $39.51.
- Ticker: IREN
- Direction: Bearish
- Risk profile: directional
- Confidence: medium
- Catalyst: FY2026 Q4 earnings (AMC) (2026-08-27)
- Cohort: 2026-08-16
- Expires: 2026-08-23
- Max loss: $4.49
- Max gain: $8.51
Structure
- long put 44 2026-09-18
- short put 31 2026-09-18
Signals
- Customer concentration: Microsoft the sole hyperscaler counterparty in our project table (DB)
- Backlog composition: $0.2B to $9.7B on one contract (DB)
- Analyst PT trimmed: Average cut to $79.31 on revised growth/profitability (web_search)
- Relative weakness: 45% of 52w range vs basket +5.2% WoW to records (DB)
What invalidates this thesis
A second named hyperscaler contract, or delivery milestones that de-risk the Microsoft ramp, and the put spread expires worthless. The name has run 32% in a day on contract news before, so the gap risk runs against this structure.