CRDO — Sep 180/220 / 300/340 iron condor
Credo's September chain prices a 23.6% move into the Sep 1 print. The June quarter beat consensus EPS by 18% and the stock still traded down roughly 15% after hours, so the last print realized well under what the chain now demands in either direction. Short the 220 put and 300 call against 180/340 wings collects $17.05 on $40 of width, with breakevens at $203 and $317.
- Ticker: CRDO
- Direction: Neutral
- Risk profile: volatility
- Confidence: medium
- Catalyst: Fiscal Q1 2027 earnings (AMC) (2026-09-01)
- Cohort: 2026-08-16
- Expires: 2026-08-23
- Max loss: $22.95
- Max gain: $17.05
Structure
- long put 180 2026-09-18
- short put 220 2026-09-18
- short call 300 2026-09-18
- long call 340 2026-09-18
Signals
- Sep implied move: 23.6% straddle (DB)
- Last print reaction: EPS beat 18%, stock -15% AH (Jun 1) (web_search)
- Credit vs width: $17.05 on $40 wings (43%) (DB)
- Hyperscaler project exposure: AWS 2,200 MW / Anthropic 2,048 MW (DB)
What invalidates this thesis
Credo has gapped more than 20% on a print before, and a guide that re-rates the 800G attach takes it through $317 to max loss on the call side. IV rank reads 11th percentile, so this is an implied-versus-realized trade, not a rich-vol trade; the 220 short put has only 203 contracts of open interest and will cost more than the model says to exit into a fast tape.