DLR — Sep 190/175 put spread
Digital Realty gained 12.7% over twelve months while the supply-chain basket it hosts is up 42.3% year to date, and US state and local governments enacted more than 275 data center development bans in 2026. The September 16 FOMC lands inside this expiry with the 10-year at 4.70%, five basis points off the 4.75% 52-week high set July 31. The chain prices a 7.1% move over thirty-seven days, the cheapest downside optionality in the universe.
- Ticker: DLR
- Direction: Bearish
- Risk profile: directional
- Confidence: medium
- Catalyst: FOMC decision + dot plot (2026-09-16)
- Cohort: 2026-08-12
- Expires: 2026-08-19
- Max loss: $4.40
- Max gain: $10.60
Structure
- long put 190 2026-09-18
- short put 175 2026-09-18
Signals
- 10-year Treasury: 4.70%, vs 4.75% 52w high set Jul 31 2026 (web_search)
- Relative performance: DLR +12.7% 1Y vs supply-chain basket +42.3% YTD (DB)
- Regulatory: 275+ US state and local DC development bans enacted in 2026 (web_search)
- Chain implied move: 7.1% to Sep 18, cheapest in the tracked universe (DB)
What invalidates this thesis
A dovish dot plot on September 16 that pulls the 10-year back toward 4.25% re-rates every REIT in the group at once. DLR's leasing has also stayed strong enough that a large hyperscaler renewal announcement inside this window refutes the demand-constraint leg outright.