LITE — Aug 740/620 put credit spread
Lumentum has run roughly 600% in a year on 800G and 1.6T transceiver demand for hyperscale AI back-end fabrics, and reports Aug 11 into a chain pricing a 21% move. Rather than pay that IV on a long call after the run, a short 740/620 put spread collects 41.4 of credit and holds max profit as long as LITE stays above 698.6, about 10% below spot.
- Ticker: LITE
- Direction: Bullish
- Risk profile: earnings
- Confidence: medium
- Catalyst: Q4 FY2026 earnings (2026-08-11)
- Cohort: 2026-08-04
- Expires: 2026-08-21
- Max loss: $78.60
- Max gain: $41.40
Structure
- short put 740 2026-08-21
- long put 620 2026-08-21
Signals
- 1-year return: +601% (DB)
- Product cycle: 800G/1.6T transceiver ramp (DB)
- Implied move: ~21% by Aug expiry (DB)
- 1-week move: +9.5% (DB)
What invalidates this thesis
After a 600% run the risk is a sell-the-news reaction on any transceiver-mix or China-demand caution; a drop over 10% on the print breaches the 698.6 breakeven, and rich pre-print IV puts the short strikes inside the implied move.