AMD — Aug 470/390 put credit spread
AMD reports Aug 4 with MI-series data-center GPU demand the swing factor and the chain pricing a 24% move on 72% implied vol. With Big-4 hyperscaler capex confirmed at roughly $630B for 2026, up 62% year over year, the accelerator demand backdrop supports the data-center segment guide. The short 470/long 390 put spread collects 20.0 with a 19% cushion to the short strike.
- Ticker: AMD
- Direction: Bullish
- Risk profile: income
- Confidence: medium
- Catalyst: Q2 2026 earnings (2026-08-04)
- Cohort: 2026-06-22
- Expires: 2026-06-29
- Max loss: $60.00
- Max gain: $20.00
Structure
- short put 470 2026-08-21
- long put 390 2026-08-21
Signals
- Hyperscaler capex 2026: Big-4 ~$630B, +62% YoY (web_search)
- Implied move / IV: 24% by Aug exp, IV 72% (DB)
- Catalyst: Q2 earnings Aug 4; MI-series DC GPU guide (web_search)
- Downside cushion: short 470 put ~15% below spot (DB)
What invalidates this thesis
AMD data-center GPU revenue has missed the buyside bar before; a soft MI guide or a gross-margin step-down gaps it toward 470 and the cushion erodes quickly at 72% IV.