CEG — Aug 280/330 call debit spread
Constellation enters its Jul 30 print with contracted backlog at $12.03B in Q1'26, up 1296% year over year on data-center power-purchase signings, while the stock sits down 13% over the trailing year and roughly 33% below its 52-week high of $411.68. That divergence between a record order book and a lagging price is the setup. At a 52% implied vol the chain prices only a 16.6% move by August expiry, the cheapest in the power cohort, so the long 280/short 330 call spread buys the catalyst without paying the IV peak the parabolic names carry.
- Ticker: CEG
- Direction: Bullish
- Risk profile: directional
- Confidence: high
- Catalyst: Q2 2026 earnings (2026-07-30)
- Cohort: 2026-06-22
- Expires: 2026-06-29
- Max loss: $14.00
- Max gain: $36.00
Structure
- long call 280 2026-08-21
- short call 330 2026-08-21
Signals
- PPA backlog: $12.03B in Q1'26 (+1296% YoY) (earnings)
- Price/backlog divergence: stock -13% TTM, ~33% below 52w high (DB)
- Catalyst: Q2 earnings Jul 30; nuclear PPA pipeline (DB)
- Implied move: 16.6% by Aug exp, atm IV 52% (mid) (DB)
What invalidates this thesis
If the Q2 call reveals the PPA backlog is contracted at low realized margins, or a hawkish Fed pushes the 10Y higher against this rate-sensitive name, the multiple compresses and the 294 breakeven moves out of reach.