CEG — Aug 260/310 call debit spread
Constellation reports Q2 on July 30 with backlog at $12.0B, up roughly 1,300% year over year as data-center PPAs land, including a 20-year, 1GW-plus nuclear agreement with Meta in Illinois. FY26 EPS guidance of $11 to $12 is reaffirmed and the 2027 base does not yet reflect new PPAs, leaving estimate upside if the print adds contracts. The August 260/310 call spread costs 34% of its width with a 276.94 breakeven.
- Ticker: CEG
- Direction: Bullish
- Risk profile: earnings
- Confidence: high
- Catalyst: Q2 2026 earnings (2026-07-30)
- Cohort: 2026-06-16
- Expires: 2026-08-21
- Max loss: $16.94
- Max gain: $33.06
Structure
- long call 260 2026-08-21
- short call 310 2026-08-21
Signals
- Q1'26 backlog: $12.0B, +1,296% YoY (DB)
- Meta nuclear PPA: 20-yr, >1GW (Illinois) (web_search)
- FY26 EPS guide: $11-12 reaffirmed; '27 base excl. new PPAs (web_search)
- Aug implied move: 17% by Aug 21 expiry (DB)
What invalidates this thesis
A hawkish-Fed or hot-10Y tape compresses regulated-power multiples, or a PPA-timing disappointment caps the move below the 276.94 breakeven and the debit decays into expiry.