IREN — Jul 55/38 put debit spread
IREN squeezed 15% today into NVDA's print on positioning, but the $13.1B 5-year backlog concentrated in two customers (MSFT Nov 2025 plus NVDA itself May 2026) remains the structural overhang. The Jul chain prices a 31.4% move with puts modestly bid; Jul 55/38 put debit spread takes $7.37 debit against $17 width, breakeven $47.63, roughly yesterday's close before the NVDA-anticipation rally. Trade pays if tonight's data-center guide reads anything less than reaccelerating.
- Ticker: IREN
- Direction: Bearish
- Risk profile: directional
- Confidence: medium
- Catalyst: NVDA Q1 earnings (read-through) (2026-05-20)
- Cohort: 2026-05-20
- Expires: 2026-05-27
- Max loss: $7.37
- Max gain: $9.63
Structure
- long put 55 2026-07-17
- short put 38 2026-07-17
Signals
- Customer concentration: $13.1B 5-year backlog from 2 customers (MSFT + NVDA) (web_search)
- Today's rally: +15.4% spot (.74 -> .08) into NVDA print (DB)
- Capex YoY: +307.1% in 2025 (overextension signal) (DB)
- Implied move Jul: 31.4% by Jul 17 expiry (chain)
What invalidates this thesis
An in-line or beat NVDA print rerates the entire GPU-cloud cohort upward; IREN can squeeze another 10%+ on a single-day reversal, putting the long 55 put OTM and locking in close to max loss before the rest of the catalyst window plays out.