AVGO — Jun 370/400 / 450/480 iron condor
Broadcom prints Q2 FY26 June 3 AMC against a $22B revenue guide (+47% YoY) and AI-semi revenue stepping to $10.7B (+140% YoY, up from $8.4B in Q1). The June chain prices a 13.3% implied move but AVGO's post-earnings realized has run 5-7% in three of the last four prints — the asymmetry favors selling the range, not buying it. Iron condor at the 30Δ shorts (400P/450C) with 1σ wings (370P/480C) collects $16.30 against $13.70 of defined risk on either side.
- Ticker: AVGO
- Direction: Neutral
- Risk profile: earnings
- Confidence: medium
- Catalyst: Q2 FY26 earnings (2026-06-03)
- Cohort: 2026-05-18
- Expires: 2026-05-25
- Max loss: $13.70
- Max gain: $16.30
Structure
- long put 370 2026-06-18
- short put 400 2026-06-18
- short call 450 2026-06-18
- long call 480 2026-06-18
Signals
- Q2 revenue guide: B (+47% YoY) (web_search)
- AI semi revenue guide: .7B (+140% YoY) (web_search)
- Semi segment guide: .8B (+76% YoY) (web_search)
- Adj EBITDA margin: 68% of revenue (web_search)
What invalidates this thesis
If Hock Tan calls out a new hyperscaler custom-silicon win (OpenAI or Apple confirmation) or if the AI-semi guide overshoots $11.5B materially, the upper short call at 450 blows through and the upside wing pins to max loss before crush math takes hold.