GEV: Nov 920/1080 call spread
GE Vernova fell 8.3% last week, about a third of the drop in optical and GPU cloud names, and reports Oct 28 with a $176.3B backlog that grew 37% a year through Q2. Large power transformers still take 130 weeks in our lead-time table, so turbine and grid orders are pricing scarcity rather than tenant credit. IV is at the 17th percentile of its year, which makes a debit call spread the cheap way to own the print at $48.15.
- Ticker: GEV
- Direction: Bullish
- Risk profile: directional
- Confidence: medium
- Catalyst: Q3 2026 earnings (gas turbine orders, lead-time guidance) (2026-10-28)
- Cohort: 2026-10-18
- Expires: 2026-10-25
- Max loss: $48.15
- Max gain: $111.85
Structure
- long call 920 2026-11-20
- short call 1080 2026-11-20
Signals
- Backlog Q2 2026: $176.3B, +37% YoY (earnings)
- IV percentile (52w): 16.7 (DB)
- Large power transformer lead time: 130 weeks (critical) (DB)
- Linked hyperscaler builds: Meta 5,000 MW, Oracle/OpenAI 2,600 MW (DB)
What invalidates this thesis
If the AI debt scare reaches Oracle/OpenAI's 2,600 MW of linked builds and order intake slows, the 968.15 breakeven is out of reach.