AEP: Nov 125/135 call spread
AEP rose 3.5% in a week the tracked universe fell 11.6%, because a utility gets paid for data center load whether or not the tenant's bonds trade at 15%. It reported 63 GW of incremental load by 2030 in its Q1 release, and our directory puts Anthropic's 2,200 MW and Meta's 1,000 MW campuses in its footprint. Earnings land Oct 28 with the chain pricing a 5.6% move by Nov 20, so the spread costs $3.70 to own the 125 to 135 range.
- Ticker: AEP
- Direction: Bullish
- Risk profile: directional
- Confidence: medium
- Catalyst: Q3 2026 earnings (load additions update) (2026-10-28)
- Cohort: 2026-10-18
- Expires: 2026-10-25
- Max loss: $3.70
- Max gain: $6.30
Structure
- long call 125 2026-11-20
- short call 135 2026-11-20
Signals
- Incremental contracted load by 2030: 63 GW (earnings (Q1 2026 8-K))
- Week change vs universe: +3.5% vs -11.6% (DB)
- Linked campuses: Anthropic 2,200 MW, Meta 1,000 MW (DB)
- Chain implied move to Nov 20: 5.6% (DB)
What invalidates this thesis
A hawkish Fed on Oct 28 hits rate-sensitive utilities the same morning AEP reports, and a close under 128.70 at expiry loses money.