QQQ: Nov 710/660 put spread
This is a hedge against the cohort's two DC longs, not a standalone call. The Nasdaq fell about 4.5% last week while SMH dropped 10.5% and our tracked universe averaged -11.6%, and the next eight trading days stack the FOMC decision on Oct 28 with the Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta and Amazon prints. The chain prices a 5.5% move by Nov 20, so the spread costs .69 to cover a fall to 660.
- Ticker: QQQ
- Direction: Bearish
- Risk profile: directional
- Confidence: medium
- Catalyst: FOMC decision + hyperscaler Q3 prints (2026-10-28)
- Cohort: 2026-10-18
- Expires: 2026-10-25
- Max loss: $11.69
- Max gain: $38.31
Structure
- long put 710 2026-11-20
- short put 660 2026-11-20
Signals
- Tracked universe WoW: -11.6% average, 71 names down 3%+ (DB)
- Nasdaq / SMH last week: -4.5% / -10.5% (web_search (Yahoo Finance, Oct 16))
- VIX: 14.84 to 19.99, highest close since Jul 29 (web_search (Yahoo Finance, Oct 16))
- Chain implied move to Nov 20: 5.5% (DB)
What invalidates this thesis
A clean set of hyperscaler capex guides and a hold at the Fed that pulls VIX back under 16 leaves the hedge to expire worthless above 698.31.