LITE: Nov 990/750 put spread
Lumentum is up about 520% in a year and fell 9.8% on Oct 12 when Broadcom's Hock Tan named capital scarcity as the AI buildout's biggest bottleneck, with no company news behind the drop. The Nov 5 print lands inside the window, implied vol is in the 5th percentile, and the 990/750 put spread costs about $79.80 on a $240 width.
- Ticker: LITE
- Direction: Bearish
- Risk profile: directional
- Confidence: medium
- Catalyst: Q1 FY2027 earnings (2026-11-05)
- Cohort: 2026-10-13
- Expires: 2026-10-20
- Max loss: $79.80
- Max gain: $160.20
Structure
- long put 990 2026-11-20
- short put 750 2026-11-20
Signals
- 1Y return: +520% (DB)
- Oct 12 move: -9.8% on AI funding worries (web_search (Yahoo Finance / Stocktwits))
- IV percentile (52w): 5 (DB)
- Optical peers WoW: FN -6.4%, CIEN -5%, COHR -4.8% (DB)
What invalidates this thesis
Management says optical products are sold out through early 2029; a raised guide on Nov 5 would squeeze the stock back toward its $1,143 high and the spread expires worthless.