CEG: Nov 270/250 put credit spread
Constellation implied vol sits in the 98th percentile of its 52-week range while utilities led the S&P on Oct 13 and the stock trades 23% below where it was a year ago. The Nov 270/250 put spread collects about $4.83 on a $20 width with the Nov 9 print inside the window, so the trade is paid for the fear rather than for a rally.
- Ticker: CEG
- Direction: Bullish
- Risk profile: income
- Confidence: medium
- Catalyst: Q3 2026 earnings (new PPA contracts, nuclear utilization) (2026-11-09)
- Cohort: 2026-10-13
- Expires: 2026-10-20
- Max loss: $15.17
- Max gain: $4.83
Structure
- short put 270 2026-11-20
- long put 250 2026-11-20
Signals
- IV percentile (52w): 97.6 (DB)
- 1Y return: -22.9% (DB)
- Utilities led S&P sectors Oct 13: Energy and Utilities top sectors (web_search (AP via 10tv))
- Microsoft PPA campus: 837 MW (DB)
What invalidates this thesis
A close below $265.17 at expiry, most likely from a PPA-pricing disappointment or a FERC co-location setback, takes the full $15.17 loss.