GEV: Nov 1000/1160 call spread
GE Vernova reports Q3 on Oct 28 carrying a $176.3B backlog, up 37% from a year earlier, and implied vol sits in the 7th percentile of its 52-week range. The Nov chain prices a 13% move into the print, and the spread costs about $50.70 on a $160 width, so a turbine-order beat pays without needing the stock back at its $1,196 high.
- Ticker: GEV
- Direction: Bullish
- Risk profile: directional
- Confidence: high
- Catalyst: Q3 2026 earnings (gas turbine orders, lead-time guidance) (2026-10-28)
- Cohort: 2026-10-13
- Expires: 2026-10-20
- Max loss: $50.70
- Max gain: $109.30
Structure
- long call 1000 2026-11-20
- short call 1160 2026-11-20
Signals
- Backlog Q2 2026: $176.3B, +37% YoY (earnings)
- IV percentile (52w): 7.5 (DB)
- Large power transformer lead time: 130 weeks (critical) (DB)
- Linked hyperscaler builds: Meta 5,000 MW, Oracle/OpenAI 2,600 MW (DB)
What invalidates this thesis
A slower order intake line or a backlog conversion delay on Oct 28 would put the $1,050.70 breakeven out of reach, and the Broadcom capital-scarcity worry hitting chips could spread to power.