APLD: Oct 23/20 / 29.5/32.5 iron condor
Applied Digital reports fiscal Q1 on Oct 8 with IV at the 83rd percentile after a 6.7% drop last week, and the October chain prices a 17.8% move. The 23/29.5 shorts sit outside that range and collect $1.12 on $3 wings, harvesting the post-print crush on a name whose 400 MW Polaris Forge 1 is live and three more campuses are under construction.
- Ticker: APLD
- Direction: Neutral
- Risk profile: earnings
- Confidence: medium
- Catalyst: FQ1 2027 earnings (2026-10-08)
- Cohort: 2026-09-27
- Expires: 2026-10-04
- Max loss: $1.88
- Max gain: $1.12
Structure
- short put 23 2026-10-16
- long put 20 2026-10-16
- short call 29.5 2026-10-16
- long call 32.5 2026-10-16
Signals
- IV percentile (52w): 83rd; Oct implied move 17.8% (DB)
- Campuses under construction: Delta Forge 1 300 MW, Polaris Forge 2 280 MW, Polaris Forge 3 300 MW (DB)
- Anchor tenant exposure: CoreWeave 400 MW; unnamed IG hyperscaler 300 MW (DB)
- Short interest: 22.1% of float (web_search)
What invalidates this thesis
22% short interest makes a squeeze through $30.62 real on a new hyperscaler lease; a lease delay breaks $21.88 the other way.