IREN: Nov 47/60 call spread

IREN rose 6.5% last week while CoreWeave fell 8.6%, and it carries a $9.7B Microsoft contract into a Nov 5 print. The chain prices a 31% move by November expiry; the Nov 47/60 call spread costs about $3.72 for $13 of width and breaks even near 50.72, still 34% under the 52-week high.

Structure

  • long call 47 2026-11-20
  • short call 60 2026-11-20

Signals

  • Microsoft contract: $9.7B contracted backlog (FY25 Q4) (DB)
  • Price action: +6.5% WoW vs CRWV -8.6% (DB)
  • Nov straddle implied move: 30.8% (DB)
  • ATM call open interest: 1,945 (DB)

What invalidates this thesis

Any slip in the Sweetwater or Microsoft GPU delivery schedule on the Nov 5 call would undercut the contract story, and the whole debit is lost below 47 at expiry.