CEG: Nov 270/290 call credit spread
Constellation dropped 10.6% last week as the data-center-linked power producers compressed together on softer ERCOT forward curves, and it now trades 26.6% lower than a year ago. The Nov 6 print is the next test; the Nov 270/290 call credit spread collects about $6.14 against $13.86 of risk and keeps it all if the stock stays below 270 at expiry, 6% above Friday's close.
- Ticker: CEG
- Direction: Bearish
- Risk profile: directional
- Confidence: medium
- Catalyst: Q3 2026 earnings (2026-11-06)
- Cohort: 2026-09-21
- Expires: 2026-09-28
Structure
- short call 270 2026-11-20
- long call 290 2026-11-20
Signals
- IPP group move: CEG -10.6%, NRG -8.6%, TLN -6.5%, VST -5.2% WoW (DB)
- ERCOT forward curves: Softened; DC-linked IPPs compressed together (Motley Fool, Sep 16) (web_search)
- 52-week position: 14% of range, -26.6% YoY (DB)
- IV percentile: 52nd (high side of range, favors selling premium) (DB)
What invalidates this thesis
A new hyperscaler nuclear PPA announced on or before the Nov 6 call would re-rate the group fast, and a close above 276 at expiry turns the credit into a loss.