GEV: Nov 940/1080 call spread
GE Vernova reports Oct 28 with backlog at $176.3B, up 37% YoY, and large power transformers still quoted at 130 weeks. The stock sits 21% under its 52-week high while the order book keeps compounding, so the Nov 940/1080 call spread costs about $42 for $140 of width and breaks even near 982. The chain prices a 16% move by November expiry.
- Ticker: GEV
- Direction: Bullish
- Risk profile: directional
- Confidence: medium
- Catalyst: Q3 2026 earnings (2026-10-28)
- Cohort: 2026-09-21
- Expires: 2026-09-28
Structure
- long call 940 2026-11-20
- short call 1080 2026-11-20
Signals
- Backlog FY26 Q2: $176.3B (+37% YoY) (DB)
- Power transformer lead time: 130 weeks (critical) (DB)
- Tracked hyperscaler exposure: Meta 5,000 MW, Oracle/OpenAI 2,600 MW (DB)
- Nov straddle implied move: 15.8% (DB)
What invalidates this thesis
Flat gas-turbine orders or a lead-time guide that shortens on the Oct 28 call would say the reorder cycle has peaked, and the spread needs a move above 982 that the print would not supply.