Nebius (NBIS): $46B in 30 Days — The Neocloud Trade vs CoreWeave & IREN
A Dutch ex-Yandex spinout just signed $46B in 30 days. Meet the neocloud category through its cleanest expression: NBIS.
A Dutch ex-Yandex spinout, listed in Amsterdam, with five data centers and a Microsoft contract just became the most-watched name in AI infrastructure. In four weeks, Nebius (NBIS) signed deals totaling more than $46 billion. Goldman raised its price target to $205. Cantor initiated coverage. And CoreWeave traders started checking their rear-view mirror.XaABCDE.
This isn't a stock pump — it's a category emerging. And NBIS is the cleanest way to see it.
What's a "neocloud," exactly?
The hyperscalers (AWS, Azure, GCP) sell general-purpose compute by the second. Neoclouds sell AI compute by the contract — multi-year, take-or-pay, GPU-first capacity built specifically for training large models. Three names dominate the public market: CoreWeave (CRWV), IREN, and Nebius (NBIS). They're not trying to be AWS. They're trying to be the toll booth on every Llama, GPT, and Gemini training run.
NBIS in four numbers
<svg viewBox="0 0 720 240" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;background:#151d27;border-radius:8px;font-family:Inter,system-ui,sans-serif;display:block;margin:16px 0;">
<text x="20" y="32" fill="#e8ecf1" font-size="14" font-weight="600">The contract cliff</text>
<text x="20" y="52" fill="#556677" font-size="11">From $530M of revenue to $46B in contracts — in four weeks.</text>
<text x="20" y="92" fill="#8899aa" font-size="11">TTM Revenue</text>
<rect x="180" y="80" width="6" height="18" fill="#556677" rx="2" />
<text x="700" y="94" fill="#e8ecf1" font-size="13" text-anchor="end" font-weight="500">$530M</text>
<text x="20" y="132" fill="#8899aa" font-size="11">2026 Guidance</text>
<rect x="180" y="120" width="35" height="18" fill="#0F6E56" rx="2" />
<text x="700" y="134" fill="#e8ecf1" font-size="13" text-anchor="end" font-weight="500">$3.2B (mid)</text>
<text x="20" y="172" fill="#8899aa" font-size="11">Contracted Backlog</text>
<rect x="180" y="160" width="500" height="18" fill="#14a080" rx="2" />
<text x="430" y="174" fill="#0a0f14" font-size="13" text-anchor="middle" font-weight="700">$46B</text>
<text x="20" y="212" fill="#556677" font-size="10">Backlog \= Microsoft $19.4B (NJ campus) + Meta $27B (5-year, March 2026)</text>
</svg>
That gap is the entire investment thesis. Trailing-twelve-month revenue is $530M. The contracted backlog is roughly 87× larger. Management guides to $3.0–3.4B in FY2026 revenue (a 5–6× jump) and an exit run-rate near $7–9B annualized by year-end. The math says: every quarter from here is a step-function.
Why Nvidia bet the farm
In March 2026, Nvidia took a $2 billion strategic stake in Nebius — not for the financials, for the supply alignment. NBIS is now an Nvidia "Preferred Provider," with hardware allocation priority during the chip shortage that defines this entire cycle. Then came the contracts:
- March 15 — Meta signs a 5-year, $27B deal ($12B dedicated, $15B optional). Largest in NBIS history.
- Late March — Microsoft commits up to $19.4B for capacity at the New Jersey campus.
Two of the three biggest hyperscaler buyers picked NBIS as their preferred merchant supplier. That's not a stock story. That's a category-defining moment.
The 1.6 GW pipeline
<svg viewBox="0 0 720 200" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="width:100%;height:auto;background:#151d27;border-radius:8px;font-family:Inter,system-ui,sans-serif;display:block;margin:16px 0;">
<text x="20" y="32" fill="#e8ecf1" font-size="14" font-weight="600">The 1.6 GW pipeline</text>
<text x="20" y="52" fill="#556677" font-size="11">5 facilities · 2 continents · 1,725 MW total</text>
<rect x="20" y="80" width="30" height="32" fill="#3fb950" rx="2" />
<rect x="50" y="80" width="217" height="32" fill="#0F6E56" />
<rect x="267" y="80" width="433" height="32" fill="#1e2a38" stroke="#556677" stroke-width="0.5" />
<circle cx="30" cy="138" r="4" fill="#3fb950" />
<text x="42" y="142" fill="#8899aa" font-size="11">Operational</text>
<text x="42" y="160" fill="#e8ecf1" font-size="13" font-weight="600">75 MW</text>
<circle cx="180" cy="138" r="4" fill="#0F6E56" />
<text x="192" y="142" fill="#8899aa" font-size="11">Under Construction</text>
<text x="192" y="160" fill="#e8ecf1" font-size="13" font-weight="600">550 MW</text>
<circle cx="380" cy="138" r="4" fill="#1e2a38" stroke="#556677" />
<text x="392" y="142" fill="#8899aa" font-size="11">Announced</text>
<text x="392" y="160" fill="#e8ecf1" font-size="13" font-weight="600">1,100 MW</text>
<text x="700" y="160" fill="#14a080" font-size="14" font-weight="700" text-anchor="end">1,725 MW total</text>
</svg>
| Facility | Country | Capacity | Status |
| ----------------------- | -------- | -------- | ------------------ |
| Mantsala AI Factory | Finland | 75 MW | Operational |
| Lappeenranta AI Factory | Finland | 310 MW | Under construction |
| Lille AI Factory | France | 240 MW | Under construction |
| Kansas City AI Campus | USA (MO) | 800 MW | Announced |
| New Jersey AI Campus | USA (NJ) | 300 MW | Announced |
For context: 1,725 MW is enough power to host hundreds of thousands of next-gen GPUs.
Bull vs. bear, in one breath
| | Bull case | Bear case |
| ---------------------- | :------------------------------------- | :------------------------------------------------ |
| Revenue visibility | $46B contracted backlog | Customer concentration: MSFT + META ≈ 95% of book |
| Hardware | Nvidia "Preferred Provider" allocation | Still entirely dependent on Nvidia |
| Capex | Disciplined, multi-year build | $16–20B more needed to deliver |
| Valuation | Outpacing every Mag-7 stock YTD | 62× sales vs CoreWeave's 7× |
| Story | Yandex baggage now a non-issue | Some allocators still avoid the lineage |
Both sides are right. Neither side is buying or selling for the next quarter. Customer concentration is the elephant in the rack.
What to watch next
- April 29 — Q1 2026 earnings. First chance to see whether the contract revenue is converting on schedule.
- Build pace — Lappeenranta and Lille milestones; Kansas City and NJ groundbreaking timelines.
- M\&A — the AI21 Labs acquisition rumor on April 10 sent shares up 33%. If NBIS starts buying model labs, the thesis changes.
The neocloud trade is real. NBIS is the highest-octane way to express it. The next 90 days will tell us whether that's a feature or a bug.
Data Center Index Research · April 14, 2026 · Not investment advice.
Sources: Cantor coverage (24/7 Wall St) · Meta deal analysis (Motley Fool) · Goldman PT update (TheStreet) · NBIS vs CoreWeave (Seeking Alpha) · NBIS shares jump (QuiverQuant) · Yahoo Finance NBIS