Anthropic's $517 Billion in Compute Commitments: Amazon Books $100 Billion, and Google's Share Goes to Apollo
No public prospectus has landed yet, so the $517 billion figure is a reporter's tally of eleven months of announcements, and the biggest slice of it routes lease payments to Apollo and Blackstone rather than to Alphabet.
No public prospectus has landed yet, so the number everyone's quoting is a reporter's tally, and the biggest slice of it pays private credit funds instead of Alphabet.
Anthropic hasn't filed a public prospectus. The draft registration statement it sent the SEC on June 1 is still confidential, and there's no share count and no price range attached to it, so the compute number everyone spent this week arguing about didn't come out of a filing. It came from The Information, which added up eleven months of announcements and got to $517 billion.
What the $517 Billion Number Actually Counts
The tally covers every compute agreement Anthropic signed since October 2025, and it works out to as much as $517 billion across at least 14.8 GW. It's an upper bound assembled from cloud commitments, chip orders, data center leases and long-dated infrastructure deals, and almost none of it is cash out the door today. Anthropic has never published a total of its own.
The business underneath it is growing fast enough that the number isn't absurd. Anthropic's annualized revenue passed $65 billion in July, up from $47 billion in May. The June filing went in at a valuation near $965 billion. The open question is which public companies end up on the receiving end of it, and on what line they book it.
Where Anthropic's Compute Capacity Actually Sits
Two names hold most of the capacity, and almost all of it shows up after next year.
Roughly two GW of that is energized this year. Everything else is a promise about 2027 and beyond, which is the same shape we found when we took apart OpenAI's compute bill last week.
Amazon's $100 Billion Runs Through AWS
$AMZN has the cleanest arrangement in the pile. In April, Anthropic committed to spend more than $100 billion over ten years on AWS, covering up to 5 GW of Trainium capacity and every future generation of the chip. Project Rainier, the Indiana cluster built for Anthropic's training runs, is already up on close to half a million Trainium2 accelerators.
That money shows up in AWS segment revenue as Anthropic consumes the capacity, with nobody standing in the middle of it.
There's a wrinkle worth naming, which is that Amazon funded part of its own order book. Amazon's total investment in Anthropic reached about $33 billion after the April expansion, stacked on top of the $8 billion it had already put in across 2023 and 2024. So Amazon has written $33 billion of equity checks into a customer that has since committed $100 billion back to its cloud. You can decide how much of that counts as demand.
Google Sold the Chips and Guaranteed the Lease
The Google side doesn't work like AWS at all, and this is where the "collecting rent" framing breaks.
Anthropic signed a three-way deal with $GOOGL and $AVGO for roughly 3.5 GW of next-generation TPUs starting in 2027, on top of the GW already deploying this year. Anthropic rents almost none of that capacity from Google Cloud. Apollo and Blackstone closed a $35 billion private credit package in June through a special purpose vehicle, which is a standalone company set up to hold one asset. The vehicle buys the TPUs and leases them to Anthropic across five sites in New York, Texas, Louisiana and Indiana.
So Anthropic's lease payments go to the noteholders. Google booked a chip sale and then guaranteed the lease payments at all five facilities, which turns a revenue line into a contingent liability sitting behind it. Broadcom, which co-develops the TPUs and has a supply agreement with Google running to 2031, wrote a residual value guarantee on top. If Anthropic stops paying, the vehicle sells the chips, and Broadcom covers whatever the senior lenders come up short. The junior tranche priced at 8.5%, so somebody thinks the tail is worth something.
It's the largest private credit deal anyone has done, and it exists so that a GW of TPUs never touches Alphabet's balance sheet.
Who Actually Books the Revenue
Amazon books AWS segment revenue against a $100 billion ten-year purchase commitment, and that's the most straightforward line in the whole $517 billion. Broadcom books TPU silicon orders under a supply agreement that runs through 2031, and it gets paid on the hardware whether or not Anthropic's run rate keeps compounding (it also eats the loss if it doesn't, which is a strange pair of positions to hold at once). Alphabet books cloud revenue on the GW live this year plus the TPU sale into the vehicle. $MSFT has a comparatively small $30 billion of Azure purchases and up to a GW of Nvidia capacity.
Nscale isn't public yet, and its numbers are the strangest ones here. Its $45 billion Anthropic contract is the largest single line in a $51 billion backlog at a company that did roughly $100 million of revenue last quarter, and it's been aiming at a US listing this month without having filed publicly or named an exchange. Whenever it prices, it prices off a customer whose own prospectus nobody has read.
When the public S-1 lands, Amazon's $100 billion will read as an ordinary purchase commitment. Anthropic has never once had to describe in writing what it owes Apollo.